[wvns] US surge is failing: UK wants out
US surge is failing, says UK's Iraq envoy
By Colin Freeman, Chief Foreign Correspondent,
and Philip Sherwell in New York
Sunday Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/05/20/wirq120.xml
The "troop surge" by American soldiers in Iraq is not working, one of
Britain's senior military officials in Baghdad has said.
In a pessimistic assessment of the strategy designed to pull Iraq back
from all-out civil war, Alastair Campbell, the outgoing defence
attaché at the British Embassy in Baghdad, claimed that extra US
forces were not achieving the desired drop in violence.
Mr Campbell, whose remarks may cause embarrassment to Downing Street
and anger in Washington, said that the casualty figures for April - in
which 1,500 civilians are believed to have been killed - provided no
"encouraging" evidence.
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Speaking on the record last week to a public audience at Chatham
House, the London-based foreign-policy research institute, he said:
"The evidence does not suggest that the surge is actually working, if
reduction in casualties is a criterion. The figures in April were not
encouraging."
In unusually candid comments, Mr Campbell also disclosed that American
commanders had decided that the criteria for the "success" of the
troop surge would be nothing more than a reduction in violence to the
level prior to last year's al-Qaeda bombing of the al-Askari Mosque in
Samarra, which destroyed its golden dome.
The destruction of the shrine, one of the most important Shia sites in
the world, led to a dramatic escalation in sectarian conflict between
Sunni and Shia factions, peaking at 3,500 deaths in September last
year. Casualty figures had been running at 800 a month before that, a
level that few would regard as anything approaching peace.
While the United States military has made little secret of its view
that the bloodshed in Iraq can now only be contained, rather than
stamped out altogether, the suggestion that 800 murders a month in the
country would be a measure of success is an indication of how far the
coalition has been forced to reign in its expectations.
Mr Campbell, who holds the rank of colonel, left Baghdad in February
and is about to retire. His remarks that the troop surge seems not to
have succeeded may also be a premature judgment.
American generals have insisted that the success - or otherwise - of
the surge cannot legitimately be assessed until September, when Gen
David Petraeus will present a six-month review of the year-long
operation to the US Congress. Gen Petraeus, the commander of coalition
forces, has said that even by then, there may be no "definitive"
conclusions, as many of the 20,000 soldiers involved in the surge will
not arrive until next month.
Jack Keane, a retired US general and one of the co-authors of the
"surge" blueprint, rejected claims that the tactic was failing, citing
a marked drop in sectarian violence since the extra troops began
arriving in January. "From a security perspective, the surge is making
steady progress," he told The Sunday Telegraph. "The major indicator
is the reduction in sectarian violence. We will get the full effect
after the last brigade arrives in June."
The casualty count for April of 1,506 civilian deaths, from Iraqi
government figures, was 20 per cent down from March, when 1,861
civilians were killed. The figure for February was 1,645.
Dan Goure, a Pentagon adviser, confirmed that the use of the Samarra
benchmark was common among military commanders. "If we get back to
pre-Samarra levels, then that's a significant reduction in violence,
especially sectarian violence, and will provide the momentum for
further improvements."
The Ministry of Defence said Mr Campbell was speaking only in a
personal capacity. "We are in agreement with the Americans, that it is
too early to give an estimate of the impact of the troop surge yet,"
said a spokesman.
Tony Blair made his farewell visit to Iraq yesterday as Prime
Minister, his seventh trip since toppling Saddam Hussein four years ago.
He met with Iraqi leaders in the capital's US-guarded Green Zone, and
then headed to Basra to spend time with British troops. At both
locations insurgents fired mortars designed to disrupt the visit.
Accompanying him was Martin Amis, the novelist who is writing about Mr
Blair's final days in office. Downing Street declined to say whether
Mr Amis's work was of a biographical nature.
===
Bush gets ready for Iraq U-turn by Brown
By Tim Shipman in Washington, Philip Sherwell and Patrick Hennessy
Sunday Telegraph
20/05/2007
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/05/20/wirq20.xml
Gordon Brown is prepared to risk the future of the "special
relationship" with the United States by reversing Tony Blair's support
for the Iraq war, President George W Bush has been warned.
Gordon Brown is expected to announce British troop withdrawals
He has been briefed by White House officials to expect an announcement
on British troop withdrawals from Mr Brown during his first 100 days
in power. It would be designed to boost the new prime minister's
popularity in the opinion polls.
The President recently discussed with a senior White House adviser how
to handle the fallout from the expected loss of Washington's main ally
in Iraq, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.
Details of the talks came as a close ally of Mr Brown called for a
quicker withdrawal of British troops. Nigel Griffiths, a former
minister, said: "We should get out of Iraq as soon as is practicable.
We should consult the Iraqi government - but they cannot have a veto.
This cannot be delayed."
Mr Griffiths, who resigned as deputy leader of the Commons this year
over the decision to replace the Trident nuclear weapons system, spoke
out as reports suggested that Mr Brown would use an early trip to Iraq
to reassess Britain's role and accelerate the withdrawal. Revelation
of the US fears will reinforce expectations in Westminster that Mr
Brown will make a decisive break with Mr Blair's support for the war.
Tony Blair during a surprise 'farewell trip' to Iraq yesterday
During a surprise "farewell trip" to Iraq yesterday, Mr Blair
suggested that his successor would continue his policy. Speaking
shortly after a mortar attack by insurgents on Baghdad's fortified
"green zone", the Prime Minister said: "I have no doubt at all that
Britain will remain steadfast in its support for Iraq, for the Iraqi
people and for the Iraqi government as it tries to make sure it
overcomes the threat of terrorism and continues to make progress.
"The policy I pursue is one for the whole of the Government, so even
when I leave government I am sure that support will continue."
However, it can be revealed that senior figures in the National
Security Council, the Pentagon and the State Department in Washington
have expressed fears about Mr Brown.
They believe that cordial relations between the two leaders will be
"at an end" if the incoming premier plays "gesture politics" over Iraq.
One senior official said: "There is a sense of foreboding. We don't
know if he will be there when we need him. We expect a gesture that
will greatly weaken the United States government's position."
Mark Kirk, a Republican congressman who discussed Iraq policy at the
White House last week, said: "The American view is that he's a much
weaker political leader than Blair. There's the fear in Washington
that he won't be as strong an ally."
President Bush's aides fear that Mr Brown will boost Democrats'
demands for a timetable for a US pullout from Iraq and encourage
wavering Republicans to defect - leaving the President more isolated.
Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate in 2004 who
sits on the Senate foreign affairs committee, said Mr Brown would
support Democrats' calls for the Iraqi government to meet "benchmarks"
for progress or for war funding to be cut off.
A source close to the Chancellor said last night: "These fears are
unfounded. Gordon is a committed Atlanticist who wants to strengthen
and deepen our ties with America around our shared values, and who
wants to persuade the rest of Europe to work in closer co-operation
with America."
The number of British troops in Iraq is being cut from 7,100 at the
start of the year to 5,500 - but there is no official timetable for
full-scale withdrawal.
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