[wvns] AMERICANS UNDERESTIMATE IRAQI DEATH TOLL
AMERICANS UNDERESTIMATE IRAQI DEATH TOLL
Nancy Benac
Associated Press
2/24/07
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6437703,00.html
WASHINGTON (AP) - Americans are keenly aware of how many U.S. forces
have lost their lives in Iraq, according to a new AP-Ipsos poll. But
they woefully underestimate the number of Iraqi civilians who have
been killed.
When the poll was conducted earlier this month, a little more than
3,100 U.S. troops had been killed. The midpoint estimate among those
polled was right on target, at about 3,000.
Far from a vague statistic, the death toll is painfully real for many
Americans. Seventeen percent in the poll know someone who has been
killed or wounded in Iraq. And among adults under 35, those closest to
the ages of those deployed, 27 percent know someone who has been
killed or wounded.
For Daniel Herman, a lawyer in New Castle, Pa., a co-worker's nephew
is the human face of the dead.
``This is a fairly rural area,'' he said. ``When somebody dies, ...
you hear about it. It makes it very concrete to you.''
The number of Iraqis killed, however, is much harder to pin down, and
that uncertainty is perhaps reflected in Americans' tendency to
lowball the Iraqi death toll by tens of thousands.
Iraqi civilian deaths are estimated at more than 54,000 and could be
much higher; some unofficial estimates range into the hundreds of
thousands. The U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq reports more than
34,000 deaths in 2006 alone.
Among those polled for the AP survey, however, the median estimate of
Iraqi deaths was 9,890. The median is the point at which half the
estimates were higher and half lower.
Christopher Gelpi, a Duke University political scientist who tracks
public opinion on war casualties, said a better understanding of the
Iraqi death toll probably wouldn't change already negative public
attitudes toward the war much. People in democracies generally don't
shy away from inflicting civilian casualties, he said, and they may be
even more tolerant of them in situations such as Iraq, where many of
the civilian deaths are caused by other Iraqis.
``You have to look at who's doing the killing,'' said Neal Crawford, a
restaurant manager in Suttons Bay, Mich., who guessed that about
10,000 Iraqis had been killed. ``If these people are dying because a
roadside bomb goes off or if there's an insurgent attack in a
marketplace, it's an unfortunate circumstance of war - people die.''
Gelpi said that while Americans may not view Iraqi deaths through the
same prism as American losses, they may use the Iraqi death toll to
gauge progress, or lack thereof, on the U.S. effort to promote a
stable, secure democracy in Iraq.
To many, he said, ``the fact that so many are being killed is an
indication that we're not succeeding.''
Whatever their understanding of the respective death tolls,
three-quarters of those polled said the numbers of both Americans and
Iraqis who have been killed are ``unacceptable.'' Two-thirds said they
tend to feel upset when a soldier dies, while the rest say such deaths
are unfortunate but part of what war is about.
Sometimes it's hard for people to sort out their conflicting emotions.
``I don't know if I'm numb to it or not,'' said 86-year-old Robert
Lipold of Las Vegas. ``It's something you see in the paper every day
there. And how do you feel when in the back of your mind it's
unnecessary?''
Given a range of possible words to describe their feelings about the
overall situation in Iraq, people were most likely to identify with
``worried,'' selected by 81 percent of those surveyed.
Other descriptive words selected by respondents:
-Compassionate: 74 percent.
-Angry: 62 percent.
-Tired: 61 percent.
-Hopeful: 51 percent.
-Proud: 38 percent.
-Numb: 27 percent.
Women were more likely than men to feel worried, compassionate, angry
and tired; men were more likely than women to feel proud, a finding
consistent with traditional differences in attitudes toward war
between the sexes.
For women, said Gelpi, ``there is an emotional response to casualties
that men don't show. ... It could be some sort of socialization that
men get about the military or combat as being honorable that women
don't get.''
Charlotte Pirch, a lawyer from Fountain Valley, Calif., said she's
``always appalled and just very upset at hearing about more
casualties, whether it's U.S. troops or troops from another country.''
Pirch said two of her nieces are married to men who served in Iraq and
she doesn't live far from Camp Pendleton, which has sent many U.S.
troops to Iraq. But she added, ``Whether I knew someone personally or
not, I would still feel it as a citizen of our country.''
Perhaps surprisingly, the poll found little difference in attitudes
toward the war between those who did and did not know someone who had
been killed or wounded. There was a difference, however, in their
opinions on whether opponents are right to criticize the war.
About half of those who know someone who has been killed or wounded
felt it is right to criticize the war, compared with two-thirds of
those who don't have a personal connection.
The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,002 adults, conducted Feb. 12-15, had a 3
percentage point margin of error.
AP writers Natasha Metzler and Ann Sanner and AP News Survey
Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this story.
===
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