[wvns] Nigeria on Edge as Ailing President Stays Abroad

Nigeria on Edge as Ailing President Stays Abroad
Theunis Bates
http://www.sphere.com/2010/01/12/nigeria-on-edge-as-ailing-president-stays-abroad/19314262/

LONDON (Jan. 12) – Nigeria has been in leaderless limbo since its president headed to what turned out to be Saudi Arabia for emergency medical treatment seven weeks ago. That long absence – during which President Umaru Yar'Adua was neither seen nor heard – led some Nigerians to suspect their head of state was dead or in a coma, and many to fear that their country could be thrown into chaos by the vacuum at the heart of government.

In an attempt to quash these rumors, Yar'Adua gave a phone interview to the BBC on Tuesday and claimed he was quickly recovering from a heart condition. "At the moment I am undergoing treatment, and I'm getting better from the treatment," Yar'Adua said from his hospital bed in Jeddah, his voice sounding weak. "I hope that very soon there will be tremendous progress, which will allow me to get back home."

However, that brief interview did little to calm the Nigerian population. Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets of the capital, Abuja, on Tuesday and demanded evidence that the president was still alive. They waved placards reading "President Yar'Adua: Talk to us," and chanted, "The government is lying [when it says] he spoke to the BBC." One protester told the United Kingdom's Daily Telegraph: "We cannot believe that he is OK until we see him with our own eyes."

Emmanuel Wole, AFP/Getty Images
Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua, pictured at right with soccer federation chief Sepp Blatter, has been absent and ailing for seven weeks.

Nigeria's president might have accomplished relatively little during his two and a half years in office, but his absence is being sorely felt in Africa's most populous country. Yar'Adua's high-profile anti-graft campaign – Nigeria is one of the world's most corrupt nations, says Transparency International – has faltered in recent weeks.

And without Yar'Adua's guiding hand, a popular deal that brought relative peace to the long-troubled, oil-rich Niger Delta has started to collapse. Last year, the president initiated an amnesty that saw thousands of rebels – who want a share of the southern region's oil wealth – surrender their weapons in return for clemency, a monthly payment, and educational and job opportunities. Attacks on oil pipelines dropped, and the production of gas – most of which is exported to the United States – picked up.

But "the amnesty process lost momentum" once Yar'Adua quit the country, says Richard Moncrieff, West African project director for the International Crisis Group. Attacks are now increasing in the Delta – three Britons and a Colombian working for oil company Shell were taken hostage Tuesday, the first violent kidnapping in months – and former rebel commanders are reported to be rethinking their involvement in the rehabilitation scheme.

Some Nigerians fear that Yar'Adua's poor health could even threaten the existence of their young democracy, which was ruled by a military junta until 1999. The president, who hails from the country's Muslim north, might cling to power despite his illness, as handing control to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, from the mostly Christian south, could upset an agreement that sees the presidency rotate between the two regions. As the country's last president, southerner Olusegun Obasanjo, ruled from 1999 to 2007, northerners might resent their rivals' quick return to office.

Nigeria's generals, though, won't tolerate an absent president for much longer. John Campbell, a former British ambassador to the country, told the Agence France-Presse, "If the current crisis spins out of control, the Nigerian army is likely to intervene, possibly with a nominal civilian leader." It could justify a coup, he added, "[by] saying it would prepare for elections and deal with 'extremism' in the Niger Delta and ... in the [Muslim] north."

In an attempt to reassert control and regain the public's trust, Nigeria's parliament voted Tuesday to send a delegation to Saudi Arabia to "convey a message of goodwill" to the president and discuss matters of national importance. But with a sick, ineffective leader in charge, it's unlikely that the country's health will improve anytime soon.

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