Situation in Iraq ‘Grave and Deteriorating', Says Panel

WASHINGTON, 7 December 2006 — The United States faces a "grave and deteriorating" situation in Iraq, almost four years after US forces toppled Saddam Hussein, a high-level commission warned in Washington yesterday.

The blunt and bleak report recommended improved diplomacy to stabilize the country and permit the withdrawal of most US troops by early 2008.

"Violence is increasing in scope and lethality," the Iraq Study Group (ISG) warned. "It is fed by a Sunni Arab insurgency, Shiite militias, death squads, Al-Qaeda and widespread criminality." The elite bipartisan panel of Washington insiders painted a grim picture and laid down a formidable challenge to US and Iraqi political leaders.

The commission warned that if the situation continues to deteriorate, there is a risk of a "slide toward chaos (that) could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and a humanitarian catastrophe...Neighboring countries could intervene...The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized."

The report stressed that Iraqis need to take on a larger share of the military role and suggested the United States should begin to withdraw support if Iraq's government does not make major progress toward national reconciliation, improved security and better governance. The recommendations come at a crucial time, with Bush under domestic pressure to change course and with the new, Democratic-controlled Congress certain to cast a skeptical look at White House policy.

Acknowledging Washington's polarized political atmosphere, former Secretary of State James Baker and former Rep. Lee Hamilton, ISG co-chairmen, said in the report: "Our political leaders must build a bipartisan approach to bring a responsible conclusion to what is now a lengthy and costly war."

The report also recommended that the US "engage directly with Iran and Syria," and that Washington should "consider incentives and disincentives" for the two nations, even though Bush has said previously he would not negotiate with either country.

"Given the ability of Iran and Syria to influence events within Iraq and their interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq, the US should try to engage (Iran and Syria) constructively," the recommendation says. Speaking ahead of the report, the Syria government repeated its willingness to cooperate with the US, and said it was in Syria's interest to help Iraq.

Baker set the tone at a press conference yesterday by saying: "We do not recommend a stay-the-course solution; in our opinion, that approach is no longer viable."

Hamilton added: "The current approach is not working, and the ability of the United States to influence events is diminishing."

Predictably, resistance from both ends of the political spectrum has arisen over some of the ISG's major recommendations, including its heavy emphasis on reviving Arab-Israeli peace efforts as an integral component of stabilizing Iraq and the region.

Reaction to the recommendations by the ISG has been swift.

Speaking to reporters after the ISG's press briefing, the Senate's Democratic leader, Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said: "We acknowledge that this is a tremendous step forward, and it will change course in Iraq. It's up to the president to fulfill his obligation, in my opinion, to the country, and follow the recommendations of this study group."

Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), incoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said: "The report represents another blow at the policy of 'stay the course' that this administration has followed...(the ISG) is clearly strongly supporting changing the course in a number of ways."

But Kevin Martin, executive director of the Washington-based group Peace Action, added another dimension, saying: "The civil war in Iraq is spiraling out of control and it's unclear whether the government of Prime Minister (Nuri) Al-Maliki can survive, yet the report will call for 'gradual' withdrawal of troops. It's no time for gradual anything. We need bold and creative actions to dramatically change the dynamics in Iraq, not tepid recommendations for political consumption at home."

In amassing the report, the ISG met or spoke to more than 170 individuals, including Iraq's leaders, US President George W. Bush, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, ambassadors and other senior officials from among Iraq's neighbors and the US.

Right on cue, Blair arrived in Washington yesterday for a visit that will include meetings with Bush and congressional leaders.

With diplomacy under way, the report said, the US should increase the number of combat and other troops that are embedded with and supporting Iraqi Army units.

"By the first quarter of 2008, subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground, all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq."

White House spokesman Tony Snow emphasized there was "no timetable" and "no recommendation for immediate withdrawal."

In Saudi Arabia, reactions to the proposals varied between calling for a phased-but-cautious US withdrawal and a replacement of US troops with some kind of external stabilization presence. Nearly everyone agreed that leaving Iraq to its own devices at this point would have catastrophic results for the people of the country, arguably in a state of civil war.

"I think it's premature for the US troops to withdraw from Iraq," said Carlito L. Astillero, a doctor at Al-Mishari Hospital in Riyadh. "Their withdrawal would create a security vacuum."

Joseph V. Nicdao, assistant finance director at a German electrical firm in Riyadh, said talk of pulling out of Iraq is only based on the fact that the US administration is increasingly less popular among the American public.

"More than 50 percent of Iraqis are against the continued presence of US troops in their country," he said. "If the US pulls out its troops now, it's because of the anti-administration sentiment among the Americans."

Nicdao also said he thought the Organization of the Islamic Conference should step up to the plate to fill the vacuum should the US troops leave.

Jaime Nava Cruz, president of the Mabuhay Toastmasters Club, said that the US should withdraw. "All it wants to have is a base in the Middle East," he said.

"The panel report clearly shows that President Bush's policy in Iraq is not working," Muhammad A. Al-Ghamdi, a businessman at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said.

Adnan Marzouki, a Yemeni manager of a trading firm in Jeddah's downtown district, said he was in favor of the commission's recommendation that the US should reduce "political, military or economic support" for Iraq if the Baghdad government cannot make substantial progress toward providing for its own security.

"There is no other alternative to Bush; he should engage Syria, Iran and the leaders of insurgent forces in negotiations on Iraq's future and revive efforts at a broader Middle East peace process."

By Barbara Ferguson, Arab News— With input from Rodolfo C. Estimo Jr. and K.S. Ramkumar.